These findings are detailed in the Global Risks Report 2025, presented on Wednesday, 22 January, at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) conference in Davos.

The Amsterdam Centre for Business Innovation (ACBI) at the University of Amsterdam contributed data on the Netherlands as a partner institute. ‘War, disinformation, and environmental issues are putting immense pressure on the world. Collaboration is more crucial than ever,’ says ACBI Director and Professor of Strategy and Innovation, Henk Volberda.

Insights from the Global Risks Report 2025

The report draws on the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024–2025 (GRPS), gathering insights from over 900 experts, including policymakers, scientists, industry leaders, and risk specialists worldwide. It analyses global risks across immediate, short-term, and long-term horizons, providing policymakers with guidance to balance acute crises and long-term priorities.

Key Findings

• War is the greatest immediate threat in 2025:
  Nearly a quarter of respondents identified armed conflicts between nations as the most significant risk, highlighting rising geopolitical tensions and growing divisions among countries.
• Disinformation undermines trust and stability:
  Disinformation and deception are viewed as the top short-term risks, capable of sowing chaos, eroding trust in governments, and complicating global cooperation on crises.
• Environmental disasters are the dominant long-term threat:
  In the next decade, environmental issues are expected to take centre stage. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem collapse pose the most significant risks to the planet's future.

A Worsening Global Outlook

Based on nearly 2 decades of data on risk perception, the Global Risks Report 2025 paints a stark picture of a world increasingly at risk. Volberda notes that the outlook is particularly negative in the short term and is expected to deteriorate further in the long term. While 36% of experts predict a rise in global disasters within the next 2 years, nearly two-thirds expect this trend to worsen over the coming decade.

The shift to a multipolar or fragmented order

Amid systematic shifts in global power dynamics, climate challenges, technology, and demographics, these risks demand exceptional adaptability from nations. Two-thirds of experts anticipate a multipolar or fragmented global order within the next decade, where medium and large powers will challenge, establish, and enforce new rules and norms.

Reducing risks through collaboration

‘The findings in the Global Risks Report are concerning,’ Volberda concluded. ‘They align with what we observe around us. Yet, I remain hopeful. By joining forces and fostering stronger collaboration between nations—especially within Europe—we can reduce these risks.’